Medivation Building Value On Prostate Cancer Prospects And Takeover Speculation

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By Brian Wilson, Contributor   
Thursday, 19 July 2012 04:28
icon_marketmoverMedivation (MDVN) is a single-drug drug developer that has been on an absolute tear since it released extremely positive results for its prostate cancer drug Enzalutamide (formerly known as MDV3100) in November 2011. Since the data was released, Medivation is up over 430% and continues to make new highs with a very stable uptrend.

For the most part, investors are more focused on estimating the market potential for Enzalutamide rather than the efficacy of its mechanism of action (which has been demonstrated quite well in the phase III AFFIRM trials. Competing drugs that have already hit the prostate cancer market are being watched closely. to determine the actual revenue potential for Enzalutamide.

 

Denderon’s (DNDN) PROVENGE, an FDA-approved drug that was poised to be a blockbuster, is generating roughly $82 million per quarter in sales. Johnson & Johnson’s (JNJ) ZYTIGA is generating about $232 million per quarter in sales. Judging by the market cap of Medivation of about $3.5 billion, investors are really expecting Enzalutamide to not only dominate the prostate cancer drug market but penetrate the breast cancer drug market later on as well (which is something the company is working on with its phase I trial Safety Study of Enzalutamide (MDV3100) in Patients With Incurable Breast Cancer.

Although Medivation has become a lot more expensive as more and more investors pile into this very promising play on the prostate cancer drug market, Enzalutamide/MDV3100 could bring MDVN to a higher market cap based solely on takeover speculation which is attracting attention from the big players. Even if Enzalutamide’s greatness in prostate cancer has been priced in at this point, the drug and company might be worth a lot more than the market cap suggests.

Checking the BioMedReports FDA calendar,  one can note that a potential catalyst for the stock is on the horizon (specifically on July 23rd, 2012). This is the date that the FDA will respond to the NDA submitted for Enzalutamide, and either grant it a standard 10-month review or priority review of 6 months (which is what we are expecting). Expect Medivation to draw additional attention after a likely priority review by the FDA, leading up to the final decision which will most likely end up being on November 21st 2012.

Traders who are interested in MDVN might try riding the sheer excitement over this drug and the takeover speculation, which has been supported by an extremely nice chart. Things are likely to pick up as summer ends and market activity picks up too.

Company Background:

Medivation, Inc. is a biopharmaceutical company focused on the rapid development of small molecule drugs to treat critically ill patients with serious diseases for which there are limited treatment options. The company aims to transform the treatment of these diseases and offer hope to critically ill patients and their caregivers. Medivation's product portfolio include: Dimebon(TM) for the treatment of devastating diseases such as Alzheimer's disease; and MDV3100, an oral androgen receptor antagonist in development for the treatment of advanced prostate cancer. Medivation has alliances with Astellas Pharma Inc, ProTrials Research, Inc., Pfizer Inc, University of California and QS Pharma, Inc.





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