Comments for Delays Keep Hemispherx (Amex: HEB) on Hold as FDA Staff Issues Come Into Play at http://www.biomedreports.com , comment 1 to 3 out of 3 comments http://www.biomedreports.com Wed, 08 Feb 2012 17:20:07 +0100 FeedCreator 1.7.3 http://www.biomedreports.com/200905261039/hebs-ampligen-decision-on-hold.html#comment-64 When "guesstimating" the possible share price I like to base my guess on what I believe the market cap should be. For instance, I believe the market cap for Biotech firms with one FDA approved drug on the market is 5-6 annual sales (I read this somewhere in an article about valuing Dendreon if Provenge is approved). I have no clue what annual sales for Ampligen is projected to be. I highly doubt sales would be anywhere near $500 million annually but here's just a quick analysis at different levels (I assumed 5 times annual sales to be conservative): $100 mil = $500 mil market cap or $5.90 pps $150 mil = $750 mil market cap or $8.87 pps $200 mil = $1 bil market cap or $11.82 pps $250 mil = $1.25 bil market cap or $14.78 pps $300 mil = $1.5 bil market cap or $17.73 pps $350 mil = $1.75 bil market cap or $20.69 pps $400 mil = $2.0 bil market cap or $23.64 pps $450 mil = $2.25 bil market cap or $26.60 pps $500 mil = $2.5 bil market cap or $29.55 pps Also, keep in mind that these numbers are once a drug has been on the market for more than one year so you would need to discount the price. I'd love to hear someone from HEB announce their projected sales of the drug upon approval but I have a feeling that won't happen. Oh and if you want to factor other uses for Ampligen feel free to do that too but for now I believe most of the stock's price is based on Ampligen's approval or denial for CFS. My gut feeling is that if HEB is approved the price will be in the 8-10 range. - Gharry Tue, 26 May 2009 15:13:01 +0100 http://www.biomedreports.com/200905261039/hebs-ampligen-decision-on-hold.html#comment-63 the reason is two fold....................... one the FDA director was asked to rid herself of a conflict of interest. The share amount is of no significance as it is still a conflict whether it is one share or a million shares. The mere appearance is hurtful for the government and everyone involved. If a denial were imminent........... it would be less of a conflict in that the value of the shares would be much less and there would be no gain to be derived from insider knowledge. The other reason is the FDA director's husband would not be investing in a company that is about to receive a denial of a drug that would render the investment worthless and certainly not maintain the investment after it was brought to their attention assuming it was not on the radar. .......................... JMTC - JMTC Tue, 26 May 2009 08:52:28 +0100 http://www.biomedreports.com/200905261039/hebs-ampligen-decision-on-hold.html#comment-61 Why would someone not remove themselves from the decision vs holding up a drug process? Isn't she saying she wants everything out in the open? This seams like a bad start for her! - the otter way Tue, 26 May 2009 05:21:54 +0100