Finally - the long awaited news on a Multikine Phase III start date has hit the newswires. Cel-Sci Corporation (AMEX: CVM) announced earlier that the North Mississippi Health Services Institutional Review Board became the first site to approve enrollment for the Multikine trial, and it can only be assumed that this is just the start of site approvals.
The volatility of CVM's stock has certainly diminished during the course of the year - givng investors the opportunity to accumulate or reload for right around fifty cents - but an uptrend could be materializing as Monday's news sparked a significant swell in volume with over three million shares trading hands.
Now that the biggest short term question mark? A Phase III trial commencement. Cel Sci's speculative potential has yet again shown its face, and the biggest potential for the company and it's stock price lies squarely on the shoulders of Multikine. At least for the near future.
Since Multikine is the first cancer immunotherapy treatment to be tested as a first line treatment, we'll finally get an idea as to how well cancer immunotherapies can work while a patient's immune system is still intact. In other words, strong; not beaten down by chemotherapy or radiation treatments. It's long been my opinion that an immunotherapeutic treatment would work better if there was an actual immune system still in place to augment.
Cancer vaccines are considered to be the wave of the future for oncology treatments, especially given the success and publicity of Dendreon's Provenge. I believe Multikine - if successful - could open the door to test other immunotherapies as a first line treatment.
Keep in mind, many cancer patients - if given the choice - would choose an immunotherapeutic treatment and its more favorable side effect profile over chemo and radiation in a heartbeat. Chemo and radiation can ravage a body and an immune system, and this becomes a quality-of-life issue for patients who are potentially living out their final days. The true extent of these statements came to light in the years leading up to the Provenge approval when patients, patient advocates and investors of Dendreon took to the streets in full force asking for the treatment to be approved.
There's a lot riding on Multikine; for the future of cancer treatment, for patients of head and neck cancer with few treatment options; and for investors who have long supported the potential of Cel Sci's products and its stock.
The trial will take place in nine countries and, according to Cel Sci, will be the largest ever conducted for this type of cancer. Since Multikine could be a game-changer, this trial is worth following whether you're an investor or not - but if you're an investor, expect gains that are Dendreon-esque if this trial is successful.
On the other hand, there is the possibility that the trial will not be successful, and Cel Sci would most likely be finished if that were to happen, barring a miraculous comeback by LEAPS for the treatment of something. I get the feeling that we haven't heard the last of LEAPS, especially if the swine flu hype is reignited this fall, but that product has to be considered second fiddle to Multikine.
It's been a long wait for long time investors, but it can finally be stated with confidence that Multikine is now a Phase III product and the risk/reward profile of the CVM stock is once again in the spotlight.
For fifty cents, this one is still worth adding, but each investor should make any BUY/SELL decision on his or her own DD.
Disclosure: Long CVM.
Vinny also authors the popular stock investing blog VFC's Stock House.
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