|As markets sink, is it time to buy?|
|By Vinny Cassano|
|Tuesday, 16 August 2011 02:48|
But you know what? They did. And they did it just as quick as they dropped.
With the markets, there's always the risk that a crash is just around the corner, that's why it's important to emphasize on sites such as this one the inherent risk when tossing your money to the way of the volatile markets, especially in today's financial climate.
While the inherent risk must be entertained and appreciated, there's another side to the story. Instead of posting on Facebook how terrified you are to take a look at your 401K, how 'bout adding a little bit? Again - there's never any guarantee that any crash will reverse itself, but you know what? There hasn't been one yet that didn't bounce back.
And this guy likes banking on history repeating itself.
There's way too much money to be had for the big boys for them to pull chocks, go home and ignore the possibilities of another rebound. Of course, these guys are most certainly hanging around right now to take advantage of some nice short positions.
At the end of the day, there will be individual stocks that lose out during these crashes and don't recover, but the market as a whole most likely will.
And another point to note, is the fact that most don't make big money on chasing stocks, they make it by buying when others are telling them to sell - and then holding for a while.
Buffet didn't make his fortune by buying at the top, and most don't.
Keep in mind, however, that there are exceptions to every rule, including that one.
With the market in tank mode, it's time again to go looking for some bargains that might recover, and make some bank for the little guy just as well as for the big boys of the street.
The haircut tore into the DNDN share price, which closed Monday under $10.50, with a total market cap of 1.5 billion. When it was all said and done - and there's no guarantee that it is - Dendreon took a haircut by 2/3.
Unless you think that the plunge was unwarranted and that Provenge sales are eventually going to kick it into high gear, as many predicted.
In terms of catalysts, everything had been going right.
The FDA was approving new manufacturing facilities for Provenge and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) decided to provide full reimbursement for the Provenge treatment. It was looking like Dendreon's 'Golden Age' would go off without a hitch.
Today, however, with the stock right around ten dollars, is it likely that DNDN is done, or does it have a good chance of recovery?
In my opinion, barring any monumental setbacks, this one has about as good a chance as you can have at bouncing back. The current prices that resulted from both the market crash and revised guidance look to be a bit overdone, and with patient demand continuing for Provenge treatment, it's also likely that sales will grow along with manufacturing capability over the next few quarters.
In the meantime, the vultures come out of the woodworks in these situations. The law firms are already issuing press releases looking for a class action lawsuit, which I think is weak every time. The market is risky enough as it is, so your stock goes down and you cry class action?
It's a pretty good bet, in my opinion, that Dendreon is going to come out of this just fine. In fact, I think it's a pretty good buy right now. Don't forget, Provenge is still the grand daddy of cancer immunotherapy right now.
Also see: The Dendreon Bloodbath
CLDX: Another cancer immunotherapy stock that has collapsed in the market downturn in CellDex Therapeutics. This one has already seen its peaks and valleys over the past couple of years, mainly resulting from a divorce of partnership with Pfizer (PFE) last year, and then a stock offering earlier this year that sent shares tumbling again.
The volatile moves have had CLDX on the traders' watch list for the better part of a year now, but this latest market crash has sent shares spiraling to new lows.
Has the story really changed, though?
The company has multiple cancer treatments in the pipeline, with the most advanced being the late-Phase II CDX-110 (now known as rindopepimut), an immunotherapeutic treatment for one of the most aggressive forms of brain cancer. This was the product partnered with Pfizer, and although some have speculated that Pfizer knew something that the rest of us didn't, there's been no indication that the development of this product has been derailed in any way.
Treatments for breast and front-line bladder cancer are also in Phase II trials, with others still being investigated in Phase I or earlier.
There's never any guarantee in this sector that a particular product is going to hop through the developmental stages with flying colors, but the potential of the CellDex pipeline as a whole cannot be justified in a market cap of just over 100 million, in my opinion.
I think that it's a pretty good bet that CLDX will return to the four dollar range when the fun and games are all said and done.
KERX: Keryx Pharmaceuticals back to trading for three bucks? I'll take that. And there's no guarantee that it won't go even lower in these market conditions.
Keryx has two products moving through Phase III trials, Zerenex for kidney disease and Perifisone as an anti-cancer agent. Both have been highly successful in trials thus far, both hold significant market potential over the long run, and neither has a changed outlook that would result from a general market crash.
Results from these trials are due out next year, and KERX should easily attain the price targets recently set by analysts MLV Capital and Oppenheimer, after each slapped tags of "Buy" and "Outperform" on the stock, respectively; all-be-it, those targets are more likely attainable in a normal market.
Keryx is also a solid takeover candidate, in my opinion, as big pharma is on the prowl of late, looking to boost late stage pipelines as many key drugs come off market in the next few years.
KERX was trading for below a buck just a few years ago, and the latest dive has about split the different between the highs and lows, but the potential still remains.
Another good bet to rebound, keep an eye on it.
HGSI: Shares of Human Genome lost another five bucks per share of value since our last mention of the stock's slide, and the company that has received the first FDA approval for a lupus-treating drug in over half a century finds itself more than 50% off its 52-week high.
Benlysta, partnered with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) to treat lupus, didn't exactly impress with $8 million in sales during the last announced quarter, but it's still way to early to deem the product as a success or failure. Sales are expected to increase as GSK ramps out distribution and Human Genome continues to expect profitability at some point in 2013.
It was an historic approval for Benlysta earlier this year, and the latest dip should not scare investors away, rather it should attract the interest of those that like to play the dips.
Especially when the largest factor behind the dip is the overall market and not a specific event relating to the company or its pipeline.
CTSO: The market crash effects all stocks, even those on the OTCBB. Cytosorbents, which issued historic news of its own earlier this year with a CE Mark Approval in Europe for the cytokine filter CytoSorb, is trading below pre-approval levels.
In my book, that's buy time, especially since the potential of CytoSorb on the open market has not changed.
Management has a methodical plan to push its flagship product into the European market, and although some investors are skittish over the fact that secondary endpoints from the European trial haven't been released yet, the fact that the European authorities approved quickly on what they had is a pretty good indicator that the medical device works; although I'm no medical professional and am just speaking with my own opinion.
Any solid news on the distribution or secondary endpoint fronts could send shares of this company upwards again in quick time.
The fact that investors are being offered pre-approval prices makes this one a pretty attractive play right now.
Definitely one to watch.
While there's plenty of stocks falling right now, these are just a few examples of the good deals that can be had if you've got the patience to wait out a bad market.
Back in 2009, it was those that panicked and didn't buy that lost out on the eventual rebound. Again, there's never any certainty that the rebound will occur, but if history serves us right, the rebound comes every time.
A little bit of lowering the US credit rating did wonders for those that were building their short positions; made their jobs pretty easy actually.
Take it all in stride, and go looking for the good deals.
Disclosure: Long CTSO