Insider buy at NVAX spurs speculation

By M.E.Garza

Friday, 13 April 2012 04:32

Earlier this week, we told our premium subscribers that Richard Douglas, a Director at Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq:NVAX) made a $60,500 buy of NVAX after purchasing 50,000 shares at a cost of $1.21 each. Novavax, began trading up about 4.3% on Wednesday and then closed up another 3.25% to $1.27 +0.04 on Thursday-- despite trading up as high as $1.32 during the session and then closing up after hours.

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Douglas had purchased NVAX on 2 other occasions during the past year, for a total cost of $161,750 at an average of $1.62 per share.

We note that the company is listed as a "buy" with five different analysts covering the stock according to FactSet. 32.70% of NVAX is owned by institutions and the stock is trading -52.79 % from its 52-Wk High ($ 2.69 ) and 12.39 % from its 52-Wk Low ($ 1.13 ). Interestingly, 8.38 % of the firm's float is "short" the stock with just over 16 days to cover-- so the shorts are betting today's minor price increase won't last, but the insiders must know something else.

We're watching this one as an insider buy trade because insiders who buy stock on the open market do so because they expect the price to rise - no one invests to lose money and insiders are no exception. There are two main reasons why insiders would invest in their own companies they believe that the business is about to get better, or the company is undervalued.

A little digging provided some possible hints. Back in August of 2009, the company told the market that they had entered into an initial agreement to license the company's Seasonal and Pandemic Influenza VLP technology to ROVI to create a comprehensive influenza vaccine solution including a facility for the Spanish government using their proprietary, recombinant VLP vaccine technology. A non-profit foundation, jointly sponsored by ROVI and the Spanish authorities, was to be formed and funded to support Phase III clinical development and other studies necessary to achieve market authorization of the VLP-based influenza vaccines in the European Union, which is targeted for 2012.

Also, a 10-K sourced entry in the BioMedReports FDA Calendar shows that in 2012, NVAX expects to initiate two separate dose-ranging Phase II trials of RSV vaccine in older adults and women of child bearing age.

The stock's chart tells its own story. Each time it "bottoms" there is a rally pattern that keeps repeating here. This looks like an interesting one to trade both up and down.

Disclosure: None

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